Meteorological Department Warns Nakuru of Mixed Rainfall Patterns for October-November-December 2024
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As Nakuru County braces for the October-November-December (OND) 2024 “short rains” season, residents and local authorities are on high alert following the latest forecast from the Kenya Meteorological Department.
The predictions indicate that while some areas in the region may receive near to slightly above-average rainfall, others may experience below-average rainfall, raising concerns over the potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and local livelihoods.
According to the Kenya Meteorological Department’s seasonal forecast, Nakuru, along with parts of the Central Rift Valley, is expected to experience rainfall that is generally near or slightly above the long-term average.
However, this rainfall may be interrupted by occasional dry spells, which could affect the consistency of water supply for both agricultural and domestic use.
The forecast is largely influenced by weak La Niña conditions, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures over the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
These conditions are likely to persist into early 2025, coupled with a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, which traditionally impacts the distribution of rainfall across the region.
“The OND 2024 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed both in time and space over several parts of the country,” said Dr. David Gikungu, Director of Meteorological Services, in the statement. “The western sector, including parts of Nakuru, is anticipated to have a fair to good distribution, while the central sector is expected to have a poor to fair distribution.”
For farmers in Nakuru, the forecast brings mixed feelings.
On one hand, the expectation of near-average rainfall provides some hope for a successful planting season. However, the prediction of possible dry spells could threaten crop yields, particularly for those relying on rain-fed agriculture.
The local government is urging farmers to adopt drought-resistant crops and practice water conservation to mitigate potential losses.
In addition to the concerns over agriculture, the expected rise in temperatures across most parts of the country, including Nakuru, poses another challenge.
Warmer-than-average temperatures could exacerbate water scarcity issues and increase the risk of heat-related illnesses.
To address these challenges, the Nakuru County Government has initiated several preparedness measures.
These include the distribution of drought-resistant seeds to farmers, public awareness campaigns on water conservation, and the establishment of emergency response teams to deal with any adverse weather conditions.
The Kenya Meteorological Department will continue to provide regular updates on the onset, distribution, and cessation of the OND rains, offering detailed insights to help residents and authorities make informed decisions throughout the season.
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